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Posts: 10286
04/28/13 01:45 AM
Niners, 'Bama & Biscuits
But that isn’t necessarily appropriate. Even if all elite quarterbacks, Rodgers included, had the exact same odds when it came to 4th quarter comeback opportunities, and therefore chance was completely responsible for any discrepancy in the results, over time, there would undoubtedly still be an elite quarterback like Rodgers who would have that 3-18 record (about 1% of all star quarterbacks, in fact!). Do you see why? Some in the statistical community refer to this as the Wyatt Earp Effect. You’ve undoubtedly heard of Wyatt Earp, who is famous precisely because he survived a large number of duels. What are the odds of that? Well, it depends on your perspective. The odds that one person would survive a large number of duels? Given enough time, it becomes a statistical certainty that someone would do just that.
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