Andrew, there's no need to get annoyed about it. Say what you like about data (I've never seen any that would support your claim), and sure, there is some luck involved. But I don't think there is a coach or GM in football who would say that Mike Singletery can evaluate players as well as Jim Harbaugh or that Al Davis understood talent as well as Bill Walsh. There is a reason why some teams are bottom dwellers and when they turn things around it's with a new GM. There are some coaches or GMs that are able to identify one position better than another. Cowher knew LBs. BW knew QBs. Drafting Druckenmiller instead of Plummer was not bad luck. Trading a boatload of picks for JJ Stokes was not the same GM who traded far fewer for Jerry Rice.