stewartjack wrote:
Andrew,
the conclusion is that teams are largely comparable in their ability to evaluate, with luck being the biggest factor in year-to-year success.
I don't believe that for a second, and a lot of raw data bear that out. There is a reason why Oakland has been bad for a long time, and for years it was Al Davis taking players who were not very good. There is a reason why the Browns have been bad. A lot of their draft picks have just sucked.
That's not data, that's a handful of anecdotes. I could counter with AJ Smith and Bill Polian, who were draft geniuses and then suddenly and mysteriously became draft morons. Maybe they contracted brain parasites, but I think contrasting streaks of luck are a better explanation. But believe what you like, I don't really care.