Jaws on Kaepernick (sorry, no link):

To be clear, Kaepernick has a lot to prove before he overtakes the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, but there is no question that he has the ability to do so.

I won’t waste time further celebrating the physical traits that set Kaepernick apart as a rare talent at the quarterback position. We’ve all seen the powerful arm, the track-star speed and the pinpoint accuracy as he led the Niners to New Orleans. But I do want to note how few quarterbacks boast all of those attributes.

Think of the elite young quarterbacks to whom you’d compare Kaepernick. Cam Newton has similar size and speed, but Kaepernick’s accuracy is superior both on tape and by the numbers (62.4 completion percentage in 2012 versus 57.7 for Newton). Robert Griffin III has the speed, the accuracy and the big arm, but he’s 25 pounds lighter. Ditto for Russell Wilson, who stands five inches shorter than Kaepernick. Andrew Luck may have a very underrated running element to his game, but it doesn’t compare to Kaepernick’s breakaway speed.

When you add it all up, Kaepernick’s physical tools alone make him a nightmare for defensive coordinators because of all the ways he can hurt you. Crowd the line and he can burn you with a deep ball. Spy him with a linebacker or safety — that’s one less man in coverage — and Kaepernick still might beat him with pure speed alone. Play man-to-man underneath and he’ll take off at a sprint as soon as the linebackers turn their backs. Drop everyone into zone coverage and he has the accuracy — and the arm strength — to find the windows.

I want to emphasize that last part because it’s a big change in the way we’ve seen NFL defenses play lately. With offenses leaning more and more on the passing game, we’ve seen defenses use more and more defensive backs. Forget for a second that the athleticism of defensive backs has improved just as markedly as at any other position — which it has — and simply realize that more bodies in the secondary means less space for a quarterback to fit in the football.

The windows aren’t staying open indefinitely; defenses are slamming them shut faster than ever before. You don’t have wide open receivers these days unless someone has blown the coverage. That has put a premium on accuracy, but it also puts a premium on arm strength. You may have just a split second to fire a pass past the linebacker and defensive back sandwiching your receiver. I often hear arm strength questioned as a key attribute, and there have been times in NFL history where maybe it wasn’t as vital, but modern quarterbacks have to have the mustard to strike when they have that split-second opening. Kaepernick has that ability.

Now that we’ve discussed how Kaepernick can hurt a defense in every way imaginable, how do you try to stop him? Essentially, defenses have to pick their poison.

I’ve spoken previously about how the one certain way to disrupt a quarterback is to hit him. Well, when you try to hit Kaepernick, he can hit back by way of a long-distance touchdown run. That was the big threat, and precisely what the Atlanta Falcons tried to avoid in the NFC Championship Game.

Take a look at the game film against Atlanta and you’ll see one of the cleanest postseason pockets. The Falcons tried not to over-rush the passer. They wanted to stay disciplined, try to pen him in and make Kaepernick beat them with his arm. Well, he did.

Kaepernick completed more than 76 percent of his passes for 233 yards — 11.10 yards per attempt, his best mark as a starter — ran the ball just twice and earned a QBR of 92.6.

What has made Kaepernick so deadly is his ability in the pre-snap phase of the game. The 49ers have an excellent running game. And it’s made all the better by Kaepernick’s ability to run the Niners’ backfield into optimal looks. Several times per game, I’ve seen the first-time starter audible his offense into and out of running plays to take advantage of the defensive schemes. Defenses have a tendency to play zone against him — to guard against the run — which makes the diagnosis a little easier, but still, it’s uncommon to see this from a first-year starter.

I believe that Kaepernick will develop into more of a pocket passer, which will help him make use of two of his great assets (his arm strength and accuracy) and alleviate some of the burden on his other great assets (his body and speed, both of which decrease with age). That development will help keep him healthy and keep him in the lineup — and winning games — for the 49ers. San Francisco will want to maximize his ability to help it win year in and year out, not squander it after a handful of seasons and multitude of downfield hits. If the Niners keep Kaepernick upright, he will flourish.

With his tools, the sky is the limit. And if he continues to refine his game, when we look to that sky in the years to come, I believe we’ll see a shining star named Colin Kaepernick.