All right, Mo, you asked for it:

49ers will regret benching Smith

And this is from Mike Sando over at ESPN:

Watching for Woodson: The 49ers must watch for Packers safety Charles Woodson, who is returning from a broken collarbone. Green Bay has been about 50 percent more likely to blitz with a defensive back when Woodson is on the field. Kaepernick has completed 13 of 20 passes for 158 yards (7.9 per attempt) with no touchdowns or picks when opponents rush at least one defensive back. Former starter Alex Smith had a higher NFL passer rating (116.0 to 89.2) and QBR score (82.0 to 65.3) against DB pressure during the regular season. Smith led the NFL in completion percentage (73.0) against all forms of added pressure, completing 11 of 12 such attempts against Green Bay in Week 1. Kaepernick is at 57 percent completions against five or more pass-rushers.


Seriously, though, nobody disputes that Rodgers is a better QB than Smith. But last year's NFC Championship was lost by turnovers - 2 by the 49ers, 1 not called against the Giants - not by QB play. I have seen more than one game in which Rodgers has been off the mark with his receivers and Green Bay has turned the ball over to lose big games. And remember... Rodgers lost to the Giants in the divisional round the week before Smith did - and by a considerably worse margin. So if I were going into that NFC CHampionship game last year and you came to me on the Tuesday or Wednesday before the game and said, hey, Aaron Rodgers, the guy who just lost to the Giants last SUnday, says he'll start for us against them this Sunday..I'd respectfully decline, thanks.

So no, I still do not think our chances of winning the Super Bowl are better this year with Kaep than with Smith. Steve Young more or less made that point in comments this week: he said the 49ers need to avoid putting Kaep in a hole where he has to come back from a deficit, and avoid him having to make more than 4 or 5 plays a game where he has to read the whole defense and put the ball in the right place. I don't think he would have made that comment if Smith were starting. Smith has already demonstrated, in both the regular season and the playoffs, that he can pull off come-from-behind victories - he did it a franchise record 6 times last season. Kaepernick, who has started a total of 7 games in his career, has pulled off a come-from-behind victory exactly zero times. I know which QB I'd be more comfortable with under center in these playoffs.

Oh well. Actually, curses! Mo, you baited me perfectly! :-)