Jack,

I'm going to go over it one more time, because even though a lot of people consider it "a dead issue" it is not. Right now is when it alive.

1. If you think you go further with a young, inexperienced starter at quarterback rather than your veteran, you make that decision before the season begins. Even if your new starter is as talented as Luck, Griffin or Wilson, the time for them to get their feet wet, learn the ropes, make mistakes and adjustments, is during the pre-season and the first few games of the season. The time is NOT in November or December, in the middle of a playoff run, when the kinds of mistakes you can expect the new starter to make will probably happen in Week 15, 16 or 17 or worse, in a playoff game. So that's the first problem with saying that the won-lost record is a wash with Kaepernick versus Smith: timing.

2. Looking beyond the flash, are we actually seeing "Alex plus," as so many claimed? No. We're seeing an inexperienced quarterback who can't manage the game at the level of the veteran he replaced. The number of delays of game and time outs blown to prevent delays are going UP not down with each passing week. Last night, Seattle stacked the box against the run and challenged the young quarterback to beat them through the air. He couldn't do it. The 49ers coaches obviously knew that the game was going to be on Kaepernick's shoulders too, since they called three straight passes to begin the game and never made a sustained effort to get the running game going. The circumstances were tough, but the point remains that Kaepernick couldn't do what he was asked to do. Nor did he exhibit any sign that he might be capable of mustering the team to a come-back. That was a knock on him in college, that he fell apart under pressure in big games. When everything is going right from the get go, he can be lovely to watch; under duress, not so much. Yes, it was a noisy stadium, but do you think Harbaugh would have told a reporter he was going to simplify the offense in the second half if the other QB had been starting and not the guy struggling to get to the line of scrimmage so much?

3. Knock-on effects. What has happened to the running game since the switch? Take away runs by the QB and in the last 6 games, total running yards are 99.5 per game. This is DOWN more than 50 yards per game versus the first 8 games of the season. The fall-off in the 49ers rushing attack is directly related to the switch to a home-run, boom-or-bust offensive philosophy that is resulting in less clock-consuming drives and less time of possession overall (see game management). Less time of possession, less time for the defense to rest. Result: points conceded by the defense have gone up. With the veteran managing the game in the first 8 games, the defense gave up a total of 103 points. In 7 games with the inexperienced QB in the game, the defense has given up 157 points.

4. Having made the switch how and when he did, the head coach has backed himself into a corner. There is almost no way he can switch back to the more experienced QB without sparking a circus atmosphere. This is true even in the middle of a game like last night's. Smith at least has a record of having brought the team back from big deficits, even as much as 21 points, but there was no way Harbaugh could call on him. So we're stuck with Kaepernick and his rawness and his learning curve at precisely the wrong point in the campaign. Yes, it's entirely possible that the team might have wound up with exactly the same regular season record had Smith not been demoted. The difference is the sense of confidence entering the playoffs. In the one case, going into the playoffs with a QB already battle-hardened by post-season play, in the other, going into the playoffs with a QB still struggling to master the offense. When he's good he's very good, Kaepernick, but I suspect there are more than a few other teams and coaches entering the playoffs who will sooner game plan for him than for the other guy.

5. We don't know how the team would have done under Smith in this year's playoffs. But we would have been able to point to a few consistent, consistently successful, features of the offense. Under K, we will wait to see. But as of now, we have no idea how the offense will look from one week to the next.

I love my 49ers. I want them to win NOW. I don't want to be saying "next year things will be better" YET AGAIN. Ok that's out of my system!

dtw, thanks for that, really. You and a few others might be getting an email sooner than you think!

Last Edited By: Win80 12/24/12 06:04 PM. Edited 1 times.